How accurate are NFL spreads?

Even though most people think that the spread bets are even, paying 1:1, that is not entirely true. The actual odds are 0.90:1 which means that you are getting 90 cents back for every $1 you spend. In order to find how accurate NFL spreads are, we need to study some statistics from the last couple of seasons.

Is it better to bet the spread or win?

Betting on favourites against the spread results in better payouts than when taking the moneyline. With underdogs, covering the spread requires winning the contest or losing by a less than the point spread.

How often do NFL underdogs cover the spread?

NFL underdogs won 34.3% of games during the 2022-23 regular season. That's approximately three percentage points lower than the 2021-22 season (37.5%), reducing the three-year winning percentage (2020-22) to 34.7%. Since 2013, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.8%.

Does the spread work in the NFL?

Yes, you can win real money with NFL spread betting the same way that you can with any other types of football bets. All you need to do is sign up for an online sportsbook, create an account, deposit some money, and start placing your wagers.

What percentage of NFL winners cover the spread?

Since that 2018 Supreme Court decision, NFL underdogs have covered the spread in 53.6% of regular-season games.

NFL Betting - The Spread Explained

What is the highest NFL spread ever?

Broncos vs.

Going into the game, the 2013 Broncos were averaging 46 points per game vs the Jag's 10.2, which helps to explain the 28 point spread, the biggest in football history.

How often do favored teams win NFL?

133 times the favorite won the game and covered the spread. 97 times the underdog won the game outright. 39 times the favorite won the game but the underdog covered the spread.

Is the spread always even money?

While a point spread requires the team you bet on to win by a specified margin, moneyline does not. However, point spread bets typically have odds somewhat close to even money, meaning you would win about as much as you bet if you won.

Does it matter who wins if you bet on the spread?

Bettors who choose the favorite win their wager when that team wins by an amount greater than the point spread. For example, if the Colts are favored over the Titans by 5.5 points and the Colts win by 7 points, the Colts have “covered the spread.” Bettors who wagered on the Colts will have won the bet.

Do any NFL teams use spread offense?

Every NFL team uses spread concepts. If you want to watch a “spreadless” offense, watch some 1960's college and NFL games where almost all of the plays are runs or short passes around the line of scrimmage.

What if you bet $100 on every NFL underdog?

Jared Smith on Twitter: "If you blindly bet $100 on every underdog ML in the NFL this season you'd be up $1,841." / Twitter.

Is it better to bet favorites or underdogs?

The underdog is always the side of the bet with the biggest, most attractive odds. If you win a bet on an underdog, you will always win more money than if you had bet the same amount on the favorite. The bigger the underdog, the bigger the potential payout if you win.

Is it smart to bet the moneyline?

Moneyline betting does have the potential of giving a nice payout. But in some cases, the Moneyline odds aren't worth it with teams that are heavy favorites. The Moneyline has the most reward with underdog teams that actually have a chance of winning.

Is it better to bet right before the game?

Betting early allows you to take advantage if Vegas sets the line favorably for the side you intend to bet on. There are of course cases when you can find a more favorable line closer to game time. This is why some sharps wait until just before a game starts to lay their action.

Should you bet on the highest odds?

The high odds in the bets mean that the payout you can win from these bets will be very high, but the chances of winning the bet are quite low. Betting on high odds gives players a chance to potentially earn huge amounts on a somewhat small bet.

Can you bet that both teams will win?

Betting the middle involves taking both sides of a two-way bet. For instance, if you were betting on a football game between the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, you'd bet on both teams to win, each at different sportsbooks that are offering different betting odds.

How do you pick winners against the spread?

As we explained with moneyline betting, a negative (-) number of points indicates the favorite and a positive (+) number of points indicates the underdog. To “cover the spread,” favorites must win by more points than the spread, while underdogs must not lose by more points than indicated.

How do you beat the spread?

To cover the spread, a bettor must either bet on the favorite or the underdog, and to win their wager, the team must cover the point spread—or, win by more than the point spread.

Why is the spread always negative?

In the simplest terms, a negative spread indicates the favorite, which is the side that's expected to win the matchup. A negative point spread really means that team has some work to do. For a negative spread bet to hit, the team has to beat its opponent by a margin greater than the point spread.

Can you cash out on a spread?

Some sportsbooks offer Cash Out for moneyline wagers, point spread wagers, parlays and futures bets. The option to Cash Out is particularly useful if a bettor has a futures wager on a long shot that doesn't seem fit to finish as strong as they start.

What happens if you bet $100 on a 140 money line?

If a team was at +140, that means you only have to risk $1 to win $1.40 or $100 to win $140. The key thing to keep in mind is that the payouts are constant regardless of how much you bet. To figure out the exact amount of risk/return, just divide the moneyline by 100.

What NFL team gets bet on the most?

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas won two Super Bowls in the 70s and three in the 1990s under Hall of Famer QB Troy Aikman. The team had a poor season last year, going 6 and 10. Nevertheless, it has managed to be the subject of more bets than all but one other NFL team.

What is the most common NFL score?

What is the most common final score for an NFL game? The most common final score for games throughout NFL history is 20-17, followed by 27-24.

How do you make NFL bets smart?