What is xT in football?

For some time now, to measure the threat that a player generates beyond goals or assists, we have been using Expected Threat (xT), which will tell us how often a player carries the ball by passing, dribbling or carrying to areas of the pitch where the probability of scoring a goal is higher, excluding set pieces.

How is xT calculated?

The scoring probability of a cell, i.e. the local xT value, is calculated as the sum of two terms. The first term is related to shooting and is simply the fraction of times a player shoots when in possession in that cell, multiplied by the shot conversion rate from that cell.

What is the difference between xG and xT?

The xG model, which is derived from the probability of scoring a goal in a given moment, can be considered as a decent model for the probability of winning games. xT takes a scoring opportunity in the succeeding n events as a valuation measure.

What is the expected goal threat?

The expected Threat (xT) is defined as the change in the likelihood of scoring. The player has increased the xT in favor of their team if they make a pass that moves the ball from a place where their team is unlikely to score to a place where they have a greater probability of scoring.

What is the penalty for xG?

The probabilities range between 0 and 1. A shot of 0.1 xG means a shot like this should be scored 10% of the time. A shot of 0.8 xG means a shot like this should be scored 80% of the time. A penalty xG value is fixed to 0.76.

Football's New Stat - What is Expected Threat?

What is the difference between xG and goals?

Comparing xG to actual goals scored can indicate a player's shooting ability or luck. A player who consistently scores more goals than their total xG probably has an above average shooting/finishing ability. A team's xG difference (xG minus xG allowed) can indicate how a team should be performing.

What is the highest possible xG?

The higher the xG - with 1 being the maximum, as all probabilities range between 0 and 1 - the higher the probability of scoring. In practice, that means if a chance has 0.2xG, it should be scored 20 per cent of the time. If it has 0.99xG, it should be converted 99 per cent of the time and so on.

How accurate is Expected Goals?

So how much better is expected goals? Expected goals predicts the correct home team result 66% of the time and away results 58% of the time. This is slightly better than shots on target on the away results and slightly worse on the home results.

What is field tilt?

Field Tilt is a concept for measuring the share of possession a team has in a game but only in terms of touches or passes in the attacking third — and it is a useful measure of how often a team was able to take the attacking initiative in a game, rather than just holding onto possession for the sake of it.

How do you calculate expected goal against?

For each shot, determine its goal probability. Expected Goals: EG = the sum of the goal probabilities for each shot. Neutralize the variation in shots on goal by calculating Normalized Expected Goals.

What is xT in sport?

Expected threat (xT) for different parts of the pitch. These show the probability of a goal being scored given that a team has possession at this point of the pitch.

What does PPDA mean in football?

PPDA stands for passes per defensive action.

What is the meaning of tilt in football?

“A state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive” — Definition of Tilt (Wikipedia) Tilted.

What is the meaning of clearance in football?

A goal clearance is awarded when the whole of the ball passes over the goal line, either on the ground or in the air, having last touched a player of the attacking team, and a goal is not scored in accordance with Law 10. A goal may not be scored directly from a goal clearance.

Do blocked shots count as xG?

If a player has an xGOT value that is consistently higher than their xG, this tells us that they are shooting at a better rate than the quality of the chances they are getting. It is worth noting that such figures do only include shots that hit the target, which unfortunately excludes blocked shots.

How do you know if its a real goal?

A realistic goal is one that you can reach given your current mindset, motivation level, timeframe, skills and abilities. Realistic goals help you identify not only what you want but also what you can achieve.

Who invented xG in football?

Since xG was introduced in 2012 by Opta's Sam Green , the metric has gone on to become one of the most widespread and insightful within football analytics.

What is the lowest xG match?

Conversation. Leicester created 0.01(xG) against Arsenal today - the lowest xG in a Premier League match since we began this account.

Which players outperform xG?

What does xG stand for?

The term xG in football is an abbreviation which stands for 'expected goals'. It is a statistical measurement of the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored.

Does xG depend on the player?

An xG measurement can be generated for both teams as a whole and individual players, giving an indication as to how well they should be performing in front of goal.

Do bookies use xG?

Yes, the expected goals statistic is useful for betting. You can easily determine the player likely to score and the team likely to win the match using the information. That is because xG allows you to come up with all the information.

Does xG take defenders into account?

An xG model will typically take into consideration the assist type, the shot type (so header, volley, and so on), distance from the goal, angle to the goal and the positioning of defenders. It is important at this stage to note that there is not simply one 'xG' calculation, like with shots on target, as models do vary.

Do pro players tilt?

Pro gamers tilt their keyboard to allow more room for their mouse. The extra space allows them to lower the sensitivity and make large sweeping motions when aiming to improve accuracy in FPS-based games such as CS GO. Another benefit is saving space during LAN tournaments and competitions.